1.Me ke Faruwa A Yanzu?
Mako na farko ne na Janairu 2026. Duniyar siyan karafa ta canza gaba ɗaya. Za mu iya kiran wannan "Labulen ƙarfe na Albarkatu."
A cikin shekaru ashirin da suka gabata, za mu iya siyan karafa kamar Tungsten ko Cobalt daga ko'ina. Wannan zamanin ya ƙare. Yanzu, muna da kasuwanni guda biyu daban-daban. Ɗaya kasuwa tana China, ɗayan kuma tana Yamma. Suna da farashi daban-daban da ƙa'idodi daban-daban.
Ga abin da binciken ya nuna yana faruwa a wannan makon:
●Tungsten:Farashin yana ƙaruwa. China tana iko da kusan kashi 82% na wadatar. Sun rage adadin da za su sayar wa duniya. A lokaci guda kuma, Amurka ta fara cajin kashi 25% na harajin tungsten na China a ranar 1 ga Janairu.
●Cobalt:Yanayin da ake ciki a Congo (DRC) yana da rikitarwa amma yana da matuƙar muhimmanci. Sun sanya iyaka kan adadin da za su fitar. Sun tsawaita wa'adin kaɗan don taimakawa manyan motoci su ratsa kan iyaka, amma jimillar adadin da aka yarda a shekarar 2026 har yanzu yana da ƙasa sosai. Farashi yana ƙaruwa saboda wannan.
●Karfe Mai Sauri (HSS):Wannan shine ƙarfen da ake amfani da shi wajen yin kayan aikin yankewa. Saboda sinadaran (Tungsten da Cobalt) suna da tsada, farashin ƙarfe yana ƙaruwa. Amma masana'antu a China suna ƙara yin aiki, don haka suna siyan ƙarin ƙarfe. Wannan yana tallafawa hauhawar farashi.
2.Tungsten: Labarin Kasuwannin Biyu
Na duba kasuwar Tungsten sosai a wannan makon. Ana iya cewa ita ce mafi mahimmancin ƙarfe don yin kayan aiki masu tauri.
Bangaren Sin
China ta fitar da sabon jerin kamfanonin da aka ba su izinin fitar da Tungsten daga kasar a ranar 2 ga Janairu. Jerin bai yi yawa ba. Kamfanoni 15 ne kawai za su iya sayar da shi a kasashen waje.1
Na duba farashin a China. Ton na "Black Tungsten Concentrate" yanzu ya kai sama da RMB 356,000.2Wannan ya yi fice sosai. Me ya sa yake da tsada haka? Na gano cewa masu binciken muhalli suna ziyartar ma'adanai a lardin Jiangxi. Suna tilasta rufe ma'adanai don gyarawa. Don haka, akwai ƙarancin duwatsu da ke fitowa daga ƙasa.
Gefen Yamma
A Turai da Amurka, masu siye suna cikin firgici. Farashin APT (wani nau'in tungsten) a Rotterdam ya kai dala $850 zuwa $1,000.3Wannan ya fi na China yawa.
Me ya sa aka samu bambancin? Wannan ya faru ne saboda sabbin harajin Amurka. A ranar Sabuwar Shekara, gwamnatin Amurka ta fara biyan harajin kashi 25% akan tungsten na kasar Sin.4Kamfanonin Amurka suna ƙoƙarin siya daga wasu ƙasashe kamar Vietnam ko Brazil. Amma babu isasshen wadata a can. Don haka, dole ne su biya babban farashi.
3. Cobalt: Karancin Wucin Gadi
Cobalt yana da matuƙar muhimmanci wajen yin kayan aiki masu inganci (kamar ƙarfe M35). Kasuwar Cobalt ta yi muni a yanzu.
Babban Matakin Kwango
Yawancin Cobalt na duniya ya fito ne daga Jamhuriyar Dimokuradiyyar Kongo (DRC). Gwamnatin da ke can tana son ƙarin kuɗi. Don haka, sun sanya iyaka. Sun ce za su fitar da tan 96,600 kawai a shekarar 2026.5
Ga matsalar. Duniya tana buƙatar fiye da haka. Ƙididdigar da aka yi kaɗan sun nuna cewa ana buƙatar aƙalla tan 100,000.
Taimakon "Karya"
Za ka iya ganin labarai cewa Congo ta tsawaita wa'adinta zuwa Maris 2026. Ka yi hankali da wannan labarin. Sun yi hakan ne kawai saboda manyan motoci sun makale a kan iyaka.6Kawai dai suna share cunkoson ababen hawa ne. Iyakar shekarar 2026 ba ta canza ba.
Saboda wannan iyaka, farashin Cobalt a kasuwar hada-hadar ƙarfe ta London (LME) ya haura sama da dala $53,000 a wannan makon.7
4. Karfe Mai Sauri: Wa Ke Biyan Kuɗin?
Ta yaya wannan ya shafi masana'antun da ke yin biredi da masu yanke injin niƙa?
Farashin Gasolin
Daga jerin farashin manyan masu yin ƙarfe na Turai kamar Erasteel, suna karɓar ƙarin kuɗi da ake kira "ƙarin ƙarfe." A watan Janairun 2026, wannan kuɗin yana kusan Yuro 1,919 a kowace tan.8Ya faɗi kaɗan daga watan Disamba, amma har yanzu yana da matuƙar girma a tarihi.
Idan ka sayi ƙarfen M35 (wanda ke ɗauke da Cobalt a ciki), za ka biya fiye da na ƙarfen M2 na yau da kullun. Gibin da ke tsakanin waɗannan farashin biyu yana ƙara faɗaɗa.
Buƙata Tana Dawowa
Farashi yana da tsada, amma mutane suna saya? Haka ne.
Bayanan "PMI" na watan Disamba maki ne da ke nuna mana ko masana'antu suna da aiki. Maki na China shine 50.1.10Duk wani maki sama da 50 yana nufin ci gaba. Wannan shine karo na farko da aka samu sakamako mai kyau cikin watanni. Yana nufin masana'antu suna aiki, kuma suna buƙatar kayan aiki.
5. Me Ya Kamata Mu Yi? (Shawarwari na Dabaru)
Dangane da duk wannan bincike, ga wasu shawarwari na wasu watanni masu zuwa.
1. Kada ku jira farashin ya faɗi.
Hawan farashi ba wani sabon tashin hankali bane na ɗan lokaci. Dokokin gwamnati ne suka haifar da hakan (ƙa'idodi da kuɗin fito). Waɗannan ƙa'idodi ba za su shuɗe nan ba da jimawa ba. Idan kuna buƙatar kayan aiki don kwata na biyu, ku saya yanzu.
2. Kalli "Yaɗawa".
Idan za ka iya siyan kayan aikin da aka yi a ƙasashen da harajin Amurka bai shafe su ba, za ka iya adana kuɗi. Amma ka yi hankali. Kayayyakin da ake samarwa a waɗannan ƙasashen ba su da yawa.
3. Sake yin amfani da Komai.
Karfe mai yashi yanzu yana kama da zinare. Tsoffin injin haƙa rami suna ɗauke da tungsten da cobalt. Idan kana gudanar da masana'anta, kada ka jefar da su. Sayar da su ko ka sayar da su. Farashin tungsten mai yashi ya tashi da kashi 160% a shekarar da ta gabata.11
Ga masu shigo da kayan aiki na ƙasashen waje, dillalan kayayyaki, da masu rarrabawa:
Sauyin kasuwa a farkon shekarar 2026 yana kawo ƙalubale masu amfani, ba kawai hauhawar farashi ba. Abin da Ya Kamata Ku Kula da Shi:
1. Kwanciyar Hankali Yana Da Muhimmanci Fiye da Farashi Mai Kyau
A halin da ake ciki a yanzu, bin diddigin faduwar farashi na ɗan gajeren lokaci yana ɗauke da babban haɗari. Sauye-sauyen manufofi akai-akai, sarrafa fitar da kayayyaki, da kuma ƙa'idodin kayan masarufi na nufin cewa farashi na iya tashi ba zato ba tsammani kuma ba tare da an yi hasashe ba.
Abokin hulɗa mai wadata mai cikakken tsari tare da fahimtar farashin farashi yana ƙara zama mai daraja fiye da mafi ƙarancin ƙima.
2. Lokacin Gubar da Asalinsa Yanzu Su Ne Abubuwan Dabaru
Ƙasar da aka samo asali, ƙarfin samarwa, da hanyoyin samun kayan aiki suna shafar amincin isar da kayayyaki kai tsaye.
Wasu yankuna marasa biyan haraji na iya bayar da fa'idodin farashi na ɗan gajeren lokaci, amma ƙarancin iya aiki da rashin isasshen wadata na iya rage waɗannan fa'idodin cikin sauri.
3. Tsarin Kaya Yana Bukatar Tsawon Lokaci
Tsarin gargajiya na "saya idan farashi ya faɗi" ba shi da tasiri sosai. Ana ƙarfafa masu siye su tsara sayayya aƙalla kwata ɗaya a gaba kuma su sami manyan SKUs da wuri, musamman don kayan aikin yankewa na cobalt da tungsten.
Nauyin da Muke da shi a Matsayin Masana'anta:
A matsayinmu na masana'antun kayan aiki da kuma masu samar da kayayyaki na dogon lokaci, mun yi imanin cewa aikinmu ba shine ƙara ta'azzara fargabar kasuwa ba, amma don taimaka wa abokan hulɗarmu su shawo kan rashin tabbas tare da bayanai masu haske da tsare-tsare na gaske.
Abin da za mu mayar da hankali a kai a cikin watanni masu zuwa shi ne:
● Kula da jadawalin samarwa mai ɗorewa duk da canjin yanayin kayan aiki
● Inganta amfani da kayan aiki, gami da ingantaccen sake amfani da su da kuma sarrafa yawan amfanin ƙasa
●Sadar da abokan ciniki da wuri game da matsin lamba na farashi da canje-canjen lokacin jagora
● Gujewa farashin hasashe, maimakon haka, bayar da bayanai masu bayani game da farashi
Mun fahimci cewa abokan cinikinmu suma suna fuskantar matsin lamba daga kasuwanninsu. Haɗin gwiwa mai ɗorewa, a cikin wannan yanayi, ya dogara ne akan aminci, bayyana gaskiya, da kuma wayar da kan jama'a game da haɗarin da ke tattare da juna, ba gasa ta farashi na ɗan gajeren lokaci ba.
6. Takaitawa: Sabuwar Al'ada ga Masana'antar Kayan Aiki
Kasuwa ta canza. Ba wai kawai game da wadata da buƙata ba ne, amma tana ƙara shiga cikin siyasa da iyakoki. Labulen ƙarfe na albarkatu ya faɗi, wanda ya sa komai ya fi tsada. Za a tuna da Janairu 2026 a matsayin lokaci mai cike da rudani a kasuwar ma'adanai mai mahimmanci. Wannan watan ya shaida wargajewar manufofin ciniki na 'yanci kan mawuyacin halin da ake ciki na siyasa ta ƙasa, yana ba da hanya ga sabuwar duniya da aka ayyana ta hanyar shinge, ƙa'idodi, da dabarun sarrafawa. Ga kowane mai shiga cikin sarkar masana'antu, daidaitawa da wannan sabon al'ada na "tsada mai yawa, babban canji, da tsauraran ƙa'idoji" ba wai kawai yana da mahimmanci ga rayuwa ba har ma da mabuɗin samun fa'ida ta gasa a cikin shekaru goma masu zuwa.
Kasuwar kayan aikin yanka yana shiga wani lokaci inda siyasa ta ƙasa, ƙa'idoji, da tsaron albarkatu ke da mahimmanci kamar yadda ƙarfin masana'antu ke da mahimmanci.
Ga masu siye da masu samar da kayayyaki, babbar tambayar ba ta yanzu ba ce
"Ta yaya zan iya saya arha?"
amma
"Ta yaya zan iya samun wadata cikin watanni 12-24 masu zuwa?"
Waɗanda suka saba da wannan sabon yanayi da wuri za su fi dacewa lokacin da canjin yanayi ya zama ruwan dare maimakon banda.
Bayanin Kariya: An tattara wannan rahoton ne bisa ga bayanan kasuwa da ake da su a bainar jama'a, labaran masana'antu, da kuma bayanan da aka tattara tun daga ranar 4 ga Janairu, 2026. Akwai haɗarin kasuwa; zuba jari yana buƙatar taka tsantsan.
Ayyukan da aka ambata
1. Kasar Sin ta ambaci sunayen kamfanonin da aka ba su izinin fitar da karafa masu mahimmanci a tsakanin 2026-2027 - Investing.com, an duba shi a ranar 4 ga Janairu, 2026,https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/china-names-companies-allowed-to-export-critical-metals-in-20262027-93CH-4425149
2. Farashin Tungsten Ya Ci Gaba Da Hawan Sama Yayin da Manyan Masu Samar Da Kayayyaki Ke Hawan Farashi Na Dogon Lokaci, Wanda Ya Nuna Karuwar Kashi 150% A Wannan Shekarar [Sharhin SMM] - Kasuwar Karafa ta Shanghai, an duba ta a ranar 4 ga Janairu, 2026,https://www.metal.com/en/newscontent/103664822
3.Farashin Tungsten na Turai Ya Kara Karuwa Kan Ribar Kasar Sin, Rashin Samar da Kayayyaki Kafin Hutu Ya Barazana Karin Karuwa [Binciken SMM] - Kasuwar Karfe ta Shanghai, an shiga Janairu 4, 2026,https://www.metal.com/en/newscontent/103669348
4. Amurka Ta Kammala Karin Harajin Kudi na Sashe na 301 kan Kayayyakin da Aka Shigo Daga China, an duba shi a ranar 4 ga Janairu, 2026,https://www.whitecase.com/insight-alert/united-states-finalizes-section-301-tariff-increases-imports-china
5. DRC za ta maye gurbin haramcin fitar da cobalt da ka'idoji - Project Blue, an duba shi a ranar 27 ga Disamba, 2025,https://projectblue.com/blue/news-analysis/1319/drc-to-replace-cobalt-export-ban-with-quotas
6. Jamhuriyar Dimokuradiyyar Kwango ta yanke shawarar tsawaita adadin fitar da cobalt na shekarar 2025 zuwa kwata na 1 na shekarar 2026., an duba shi a ranar 4 ga Janairu, 2026.https://www.metal.com/en/newscontent/103701184
7.Cobalt - Farashi - Jadawali - Bayanan Tarihi - Labarai - Tattalin Arzikin Ciniki, an duba shi a ranar 4 ga Janairu, 2026,https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/cobalt
8. Ƙarin kuɗin ƙarfe | Legierungszuschlag.info, an duba shi a ranar 4 ga Janairu, 2026,https://legierungszuschlag.info/en/
9. Farashin Hannun Jari na Tiangong International Co Ltd a Yau | HK: 0826 Kai Tsaye - Investing.com, an duba shi a ranar 4 ga Janairu, 2026,https://www.investing.com/equities/tiangong-international-co-ltd
10. Manufofin sake dawowa a watan Disamba, an duba su a ranar 4 ga Janairu, 2026,https://www.ecns.cn/news/economy/2026-01-02/detail-iheymvap1611554.shtml
11. Farashin Tungsten Concentrate ya karu da kashi 7% a cikin Rana ɗaya - Disamba 16, 2025, an shiga Disamba 27, 2025,https://www.ctia.com.cn/en/news/46639.html
Lokacin Saƙo: Janairu-05-2026